Probabilistic fracture mechanics by Galerkin meshless methods – part II: reliability analysis

This is the second in a series of two papers generated from a study on probabilistic meshless analysis of cracks. In this paper, a stochastic meshless method is presented for probabilistic fracture-mechanics analysis of linear-elastic cracked structures. The method involves an element-free Galerkin method for calculating fracture response characteristics; statistical models of uncertainties in load, material properties, and crack geometry; and the first-order reliability method for predicting probabilistic fracture response and reliability of cracked structures. The sensitivity of fracture parameters with respect to crack size, required for probabilistic analysis, is calculated using a virtual crack extension technique described in the companion paper [1]. Numerical examples based on mode-I and mixed-mode problems are presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that the predicted probability of fracture initiation based on the proposed formulation of the sensitivity of fracture parameter is accurate in comparison with the Monte Carlo simulation results. Since all gradients are calculated analytically, reliability analysis of cracks can be performed efficiently using meshless methods.